Econometric Business Cycle Research: an assessment of method
نویسنده
چکیده
Econometric busines cycle research (EBCR) combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., up and downs in overall economic activity. EBCR has four goals: description, forecasting, policy evaluation and implementation/testing of economic theories. In this paper I assess four EBCR methods: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business cycle models. My conclusion will be that simultaneous equations models are—despite its shortcomings—the best vehicle for EBCR is all its goals are to be attained simultaneously.
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